“In 2026, I expect the normalisation of instant, local-currency cross-border settlements for African SMEs…” – Austin Okpagu

Prediction

In 2026, I expect the normalisation of instant, local-currency cross-border settlements for African SMEs, which will most likely be driven by the convergence of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and regulated stablecoin liquidity.

From all indications, we are moving past the era where fintechs or banks merely mask settlement delays behind the scenes to one where true real-time interoperability lies. This will allow a merchant in say Kano or Lagos to pay a supplier in Nairobi in Naira and have it received in KES within minutes or even seconds, effectively bypassing the current need for US/EUR Dollar intermediation for intra-continental trade.

Supporting Evidence

Early 2026, PAPSS connects over 19 central banks and 150+ commercial banks, alongside the 2025 launch of the Pan-African Currency Marketplace (PACM) and PAPSSCard. The PAPSS, which is one of the key operational instruments of the AfCFTA, designed as a centralised system for processing, clearing, and settling of cross-border trade and commerce payments among African countries, will take flight in 2026 on this basis.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in April 2025 issued a circular to review and simplify documentation requirements for low-value PAPSS transactions (below $2,000 for individuals and $5,000 for corporates) to encourage wider adoption. This is further underpinned by the mandatory adoption of ISO 20022 standards that finally provided the structured data needed for automated, real-time compliance screening across different jurisdictions. We are no longer debating the technology, as it has been tested; we are now witnessing the network effect as major Tier-1 banks integrate these rails directly into their corporate banking apps in 2025, and we expect to see more central and commercial banks adopt them going forward.

Risk Factors

The primary risk is regulatory protectionism, which will involve individual central banks imposing restrictive data localisation or liquidity-trapping policies to defend their local currencies. This is one of the key bottlenecks the region has contended with in the past and is likely to continue if deliberate effort isn’t made to deal with it.

While the technical rails are ready and proven to truly work, a lack of harmonised Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and digital identity harmonisation,  license Passporting regulations across regional blocs like ECOWAS and the EAC could create compliance friction that will keep costs high. If regulators perceive instant settlement as a threat to FX stability rather than a tool for trade, they may throttle the very interoperability that the AfCFTA aims to achieve.

Who is Austin Okpagu?

Austin is the Country Director for Verto in Nigeria, where he leads the company’s local strategy and operations.

Before Verto, he was Managing Director/CEO of JumiaPay Nigeria, the fintech arm of Jumia, licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria. During his time at JumiaPay, he held senior leadership roles across growth, strategy, and consumer business, overseeing sales execution and operational strategy in Nigeria and supporting expansion efforts in Ghana.

Earlier, Austin worked at OPay as Senior Manager for Business Development and Corporate Partnerships, helping grow enterprise adoption and partnerships. He also spent nearly five years at Paga, working across business development and partnerships, with a focus on navigating regulatory requirements and scaling commercial relationships.